The Problem with Facebook

Friday, October 2nd, 2009 by Bill Swadley.

Facebook is a good way to find people with whom you’ve unintentionally lost touch (if there is such a unintentionally losing touch) and keeping track of people with whom you’d rather not lose touch.  It’s also fun to look at photos of people on the other side of the world, their kids you’ve never met, the friends that aren’t you, etc. Some take a particular sick pleasure in seeing exes who haven’t aged well. The problem with Facebook is that the people who swear by it think it’s much more than this, like a good way to communicate with your friends. Here’s why it’s nothing of the kind.

Let’s say you’re an active Facebook user who has 100 “friends.” Of those 100 friends, lets assume a generous 10% of them check Facebook once a day or more. Further, let’s say that another very generous 40% of them check at least once each week without fail. On the other side, lets assume that 30% check irregularly, maybe once every two weeks or so, another 20% once a month, and 10% never return after creating their account. (I would assume  that last 10% is more like 30%, but we’re being generous here with presumed Facebook participation. Your results may vary.)

Okay, now let’s say you’re in the top 10% of people who visit daily or more and you decide you want to let all your friends know about something really important, like you’re being evicted and if all your friends sent you $25 each you could forestall the sheriff one more month. In the old days, you would have made some phone calls or written an e-mail making your request (people with more money, you meet for lunch), with confidence that your request has been heard and (probably) ignored by all. But this isn’t the old days. Now you just throw a post up on Facebook with the delusion that all your friends will read it right away and come to the rescue or not.

Using my generous participation percentages, you’ve just reached about 10 of your 100 friends immediately, 40 more within a week, and the rest eventually or not at all. Eviction is imminent.

The problem with Facebook is that it gives one the illusion that anyone is listening other than the other fanatics like you who spend their days surfing the web and posting ad nauseum on Facebook, which is nothing close to all the people you’d like to be in touch with on a regular basis.  Aside from the emergency scenario above, if one treats Facebook as their primary means of staying in touch, then a whole boatload of people are potentially neglected. People who would like to be included, but aren’t because they don’t have the time and/or inclination to participate on Facebook.

I don’t know if this will happen, but it seems to me that at some point a critical mass of Facebook members will realize that most people aren’t listening and Facebook will be replaced by whatever time-suck is next in line that convincingly gives the illusion of interpersonal connection.

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